PC VENDORS facing radical Change- Paul Weinberg

PC vendors facing radical change

17 June, 2007 By Paul Weinberg

Expansion of sales outside the saturated markets of North America and Europe will alter the dynamics of the PC industry, stated Simon Yates, research vice president and research director at Forrester Research and the co-author of a new report.
A sign of the shape of things to come, projected Forrester, is that more than 1 billion PCs will be sold worldwide by the end of 2008 and there will be a further jump of more than 2 billion PCs purchased by 2015.
A key point made by Forrester is while it took 27 years to reach one billion PC sales, it will take only five years to reach the next billion, due to "advancing technology, lower prices and global demand on the part of a technology-aware population." Listed are the new industrial players -- i.e. Brazil, Russia, India, and China -- which will account for more than 775 million new PCs by 2015.
Spurring sales in the impoverished regions of the North and South on the planet, stated Yates, are government subsidy programs that promote increased PC usage and particularly laptop adoption, as well as devices that are heavily discounted by the PC vendors themselves.
"All of these countries that are pouring computers into their education systems over the ten years are going to create better educated, more technology aware workers. I think there is a huge impact on global competitiveness."
Yates cited the example of Intel and Acer, which are jointly introducing the $200 (U.S.) Classmate PC laptop for educational markets.
All of this means, he stated, is that PC vendors like HP and Dell can no longer introduce new hardware products on a small scale to test the market, ramp them into full production eventually and then keep adding refreshed replacements over time.
Yates asserted that the PC industry's practice of forcing customers to frequently upgrade their hardware and coast along with incremental technical improvements will not fly in emerging markets.
"The problem in the emerging markets is that you get one shot [with a product] because people in these countries are not going to quickly dispose every two years PCs that cost them such a high proportion of their income."
He suggested that people in emerging markets will probably hold onto their laptops for upwards five to eight years until the machines basically die.
"Instead of trying to innovate incrementally over time, with the same product, you are going to see [PC] innovation in terms of lots of different products from the same company, coming to market at the same time. [Vendors] will not be able to spend as much time and resources with gradual improvements to a product."
Yates said he see vendors introducing a broader range of innovative PC products that will contain improvements in areas like battery life, displays, design and form factor.
PC products will have to succeed quickly in the market or die, he envisioned.
"[Vendors] will hit the market quickly, have products adopted by service providers, picked up by millions of people and then abandoned [if they do not sell.]"
PC products will increasingly be just like any consumer electronics items that are sold in mass retailers like Wal-Mart, explained Yates.
"You will see basic Internet connected devices with very limited port power. You will see a lot of different speed sizes, seven or eight inch displays that you never saw before because the manufacturers never saw it cost effective to build those kinds of panels."
Yates also predicted increased sales in those markets in North America that have resisted purchasing a PC, especially low income areas, through subsidized sales in the school systems.
"I could easily see for example low end PCs that do well in Mexico, for example, being introduced into the United States."
IT vendors will need greater worldwide manufacturing capacity than exists currently in the emerging markets to satisfy an expected insatiable demand for PCs, stated Yates.
"If you think about the volume that we are talking about, if this report turns out to be accurate, there are not enough plants in the world to manufacture this much stuff. [The industry] will have to go to contract manufacturers. There will be a lot of new contract manufactures that will develop out of this."
Among the countries expected by Forrester to play a role in the industrial ramp for PCs are China, Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam and Cambodia.
"There is a pretty good reason why Intel and Dell are building enormous factories in Vietnam. It is because the labour costs in China have gotten to be high."
One drawback for the channel is we will eventually have too many different kinds of products, and too many configurations being produced by the PC makers.
"The channel wants things to be like the corporate environment. The more standardized and consistent things are, the easier it is to make a profit. By selling similar configurations you are able to get at lower costs. The more variation there is for the channel, the more difficult it is to sell."
But standardization might also eventually occur once the dust settles in the PC, making the life of resellers might easier, he added.

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7 RULES for Using Laptops in Meetings

7 rules for using laptops in meetings
17 June, 2007By Jeff WuorioNot long ago, Frances Altman agreed to present a talk to some of her colleagues. Everyone arrived on time. Unfortunately, at least from her point of view, so did their laptop computers.
"Several people came in and started working on their laptops right through my talk," recalls Altman, public relations specialist at Virginia Commonwealth University. "It was very discourteous -- they could hardly be taking notes or listening to you. Next time, I'll request both phones and computers off."
Altman's experience isn't singular. Laptops (and Tablet PCs) are as much an element of business meetings today as any piece of equipment. But rules and protocols for using them are often lacking.

Here, then, are seven suggested guidelines to ensure that laptops contribute to productive meetings rather than to distract and annoy participants.

1. Make sure there's a point.

Few businesspeople would discount the productive oomph that computers can bring to a meeting, no matter if they're part of a presentation or a means of recording the proceedings. But it's usually a good idea to discourage someone from using a laptop for something other than the business at hand.
"It is impossible to have a productive, interactive meeting with laptops separating the attendees. So meeting participants should leave their laptops in their offices unless they have a reason to have them in the meeting," says Deborah Barrett, a senior lecturer at the Jones Graduate School of Management at Rice University. (That is, unless, of course, the meeting requires that users bring their laptops to follow along.)

2. Designate a laptop.

Again, laptops can be integral to the business of a meeting. If a computer needs to be part of the proceedings, consider putting one person in charge of computer duties. If notes need to be taken, that one person can look after the chore, then share them with the other attendees once the meeting is completed. Likewise, if presentations such as PowerPoint are necessary, there's really no necessity for more than one computer.
"Designating someone as the official recorder so that one person records the proceedings on his laptop frees others to mentally engage in the conversation," says Fairfax, Va., consultant Kristin Arnold. "The general rule of thumb is: If you need face-to-face interaction, put the laptops away."

3. Be ready to explain why you've brought a laptop.

Having a fairly liberal meetings and laptops policy doesn't preclude good manners. If you bring your machine to a meeting, it's courteous to let the person in charge know why it's there, be it for recording purposes or access to pertinent data. That can head off sour feelings if someone is mysteriously hunkered down over a laptop for no apparent purpose.

4. Use some discretion.

Just because your laptop's in front of you doesn't mandate its constant use. Even if you're taking notes, never looking up from your machine can be alienating to the presenter and those around you (not to mention inefficient too -- ever spend too much time with your computer and later have to briefed about what actually went on in a meeting?) Strike a balance. Use your machine but pay due attention to the discussion at hand.
"It's distracting for the person conducting the meeting to stay on point while someone is tapping away at a keyboard," says Martinsville, N.J., etiquette authority Maureen Sanders. "Nuances suggested by body language are often lost because there is no active eye contact when one party is preoccupied with his laptop."


5. Turn down the bells and whistles.

Yet another point of compromise: Treat your computer as you would your cell phone at the theater. If you choose to bring it along, take a few moments beforehand to mute any sort of noise or sound that may prove distracting or annoying to your colleagues.

6. When in doubt, leave them out.

Arnold recalls an introductory meeting with a company in which she asked participants to leave their laptops behind. "When I told them no laptops, there was nearly a mutiny," she says. Not to suggest that business revert back to the days of yellow pads and carbon paper, but there's nothing cast in stone that makes laptops an essential element of business meetings. If you're concerned that laptops may be more of a hindrance rather than help, you might consider keeping them out of meetings altogether. Do it on a trial basis and see if meetings suddenly blossom in productivity and efficiency.

7. Dissect your meetings.

If you spot problems seemingly stemming from laptop use -- poor attention, scattered discussions or the like -- the issue may not be with the machines themselves. Rather, take a look at the mechanics of your meetings. It may turn out that improper laptop use may merely be symptomatic of a greater concern.
"There are underlying problems with many meetings -- meetings held without a clear purpose or poorly planned or facilitated meetings -- which contribute to the onslaught of laptops in meetings," Rice University's Barrett says. "Companies sometimes meet out of habit instead of necessity. If meetings are well planned and well run, then people will be less likely to bring their multi-tasking habits into the meeting."

Jeff Wuorio is an author and consultant who writes about small-business management issues, and publishes a monthly newsletter.

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